Research: Labour Market Outlook: Summer 2019

The latest quarterly Labour Market Outlook from CIPD, produced in partnership with The Adecco Group UK & Ireland, provides forward-looking labour market data and analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions.

Key findings

  • The majority of employers surveyed still intend to increase staff levels, and pay expectations for the coming year increased marginally within the private and public sectors.  
  • Expectations remain higher within the private sector, increasing from 2% three months ago to 2.5% this quarter. Public sector expectations rose from 1% to 1.5%. The overall basic pay expectations for all employers remains unchanged at 2%. 
  • The share of employers that expect basic pay to increase by 3% or more has increased compared with the same period last year. 36% of employers expect their basic pay award to increase by at last 3% in the year ahead, which compares with 28% of employers in the same period last year.
  • A slight decline in employment confidence this quarter highlights that key recruitment and retention challenges remain for many employers, putting upward pressure on salaries in sectors such as construction, retail and hospitality.
  • This quarter saw a worrying decline in the number of applicants for low-skilled jobs, which is due at least partially to the fall in migration from the EU. 
  • The supply of candidates for medium and high-skilled jobs has remained consistent. This is partly because of a relatively high number of non-EU migrants arriving in the UK during the last year to live and work.
  • The removal of the migration cap for key professions, such as healthcare, has been key to reducing recruitment difficulties for employers.