Report: The RF Earnings Outlook Q4 2017

This Resolution Foundation briefing uses 13 indicators to take a detailed look at the underlying trends and future prospects effecting pay growth.

Key findings:

• Although real pay continued to fall in Q4 2017, the pay squeeze began to ease and averaged over three quarters there was positive (if muted) year-on-year pay growth.
• Median year-on-year real hourly pay growth for employees in work for more than a year (both job stayers and changers) remains below the levels of 2015 but above those of the pre-crisis.
• The end of 2017 bought the first successive two quarters of relatively strong growth in labour productivity since the financial crisis.
• Although firms may feel the pressure to raise wages in the short term, their ability to deliver longer term high real pay growth may remain limited.