Top tips for using data insights to map future people risks

Employers that utilise comprehensive data insights are usually better equipped to circumvent any potential people risks.

People risk has been at the top of the risk register for most organisations over the past few years.

These are risks to a business that arise from workforce changes, people management, wellbeing and legal and regulatory compliance, to name a few. And as businesses - and the markets they operate in - evolve these risks are becoming increasingly complex.

For UK organisations, employing comprehensive data insights is a strategic necessity to anticipate, prepare for, and ultimately mitigate these threats.

Below are the five top ways in which HR teams should leverage data to map out future people risks.

1. Get the foundations right

It is important to establish the framework within which future people risks can be mapped and addressed. At a foundational level, such a framework should consist of:

Quality data collection: Ensure HR systems such as HRIS, payroll, learning and development and those recording absences or performance collect relevant, accurate, and timely data. Missing or inconsistent data would likely result in speculative risk mapping and might make any potential issues worse.
Standardised definitions and metrics: Establish clear definitions for important concepts such as “turnover”, “key person” and “wellbeing issues”. This allows comparison over time and benchmarking against external sources.
Comprehensive analytics capability: Whilst the importance of having good data analytics capability cannot be overstated, there are sufficient indications that many organisations are not yet fully using people data for strategic decision-making. For example, recent research from Barnett Waddingham indicates that only 39% of organisations actively measure absentee rates and that not many more than this (only 42%) measure rates of employee retention or turnover.

However, when these foundations are in place, HR can move beyond descriptive analytics (what has happened) to having access to predictive and prescriptive analytics (what might happen, and what to do about it).

2. Identify emerging workforce trends and gaps

Mapping future risks means spotting existing, often weaker signals early. Examples include:

Skills gap analysis: Compare current skills and roles with what the future demands. Consider the impact of factors such as digitalisation, AI, regulation changes and market shifts on how your business operates.
Turnover/retention patterns: High turnover in certain departments or seniority levels is an early warning. Such patterns can signal the potential risk of losing intellectual property or damage to leadership pipelines.
Wellbeing metrics: Trends in sick leave, mental health referrals, fatigue, or even physical impacts on health of say a certain location can be early indicators of future risk concerns. For this, not only management information should be used but also employee feedback surveys or insights from focus groups.

3. Integrate external data and benchmarking

External or macro-level data helps put things in context and reveals risks that an organisation might not identify quite as clearly from only looking at their own data.

Relevant indicators would include:

Labour market data: Stay on top of trends in unemployment, skills supply, or migration and make sure to ask questions such as “are certain skills becoming scarce?” or “are competitors paying more for certain roles?”
Economic indicators: Inflation and interest rate trends can feed into wellbeing, wage expectations, and turnover.
Industry/peer benchmarks: Know where similar organisations to yours are seeing challenges. For example, what turnover rates are typical in your sector? And what are common health and wellbeing outcomes of certain workforce decisions?

Having reliable data on trends - combined with relevant external data – allows organisations to create scenarios of possible futures. This helps in stress-testing and understanding the impact of different risks.

Typical scenarios would be to model the impact of a recession on the labour market or anticipating new regulations around pension provision. In each case, businesses can explore how to respond effectively and mitigate any negative impact on their workforce.

4. Ensure good governance and ethical use

As data-led risk mapping evolves, organisations should ensure good practice through the ethical and lawful use of data. In the UK, GDPR have strict requirements about how employee data should be collected, processed, and stored.

Transparency: Employee trust remains vital, so employers should be clear about what data is being used and for what purpose. The misuse of people data can damage morale and potentially cause legal issues.
Audit and oversight: Ensure regular internal audits of models and data usage and oversight by governance committees.

5. Make room for learning and adapting

Mapping risk is only useful if insights lead to action and learning. After mitigation measures are implemented, organisations should review what worked and what did not, to refine the assumptions and processes to employ at the next opportunity.

Owners of specific processes – to identify risks and implement appropriate mitigation measures - should be identified, trained and held accountable.

Finally, it should be valuable to realise that successfully mapping future people risk is not just about avoiding negatives, but that it also creates opportunities.

Having an efficient risk mapping framework in place would improve an organisation’s ability to attract, retain and develop talent more effectively and in a sustainable manner, improving resilience and the employer brand.

To explore more about how to identify and map your future people risks, discover Barnett Waddingham’s Employer DNA research - designed to help you understand organisation’s unique DNA and unlock opportunities for long-term success.